Meteorologists use scientific methods to make their forecasts.

The scientific approach obliges to look at things from a different perspective. Do meteorologists believe in folk omens? Of course not. After all, in fact, by signs it is impossible to predict the future. They tell about the past and about the trends that have developed in the weather and nature to present moment. In this sense, the so-called phenological signs - about the behavior of animals and plants - are of value.

There are many interesting things in autumn folk signs. One of the most curious signs of September: if the leaves on the birch begin to turn yellow from the top, wait for a cold autumn and winter, and if from below, then the autumn will be late and warm.

This sign has a scientific explanation.

Trees begin to turn yellow when the average daily temperature drops below + 16°. Under such conditions, chlorophyll ceases to be produced in the leaves, and yellow pigments - carotenoids appear. Thus, the yellowing of the leaves illustrates the change in temperature with altitude. If the leaves turn yellow at the bottom of the tree, it means that at night there is a strong cooling near the surface of the earth, characteristic of anticyclonic weather. During the day in such conditions, on the contrary, it is warm. And, if an anticyclone sets in in the fall, then it will most likely last for a long time. But if the top of the birch turned yellow, the air above is colder than below. This most often occurs during the invasion of cold air masses, which are usually brought by inclement cyclones.

Spiders can also give their forecast. There is such a sign: if in September there are a lot of cobwebs in the forest, and it is woven into balls, this is by cold autumn, but if the web is rare, stretched across the grass, it means to be warm. Entomologists, by the way, are sure that spiders are real weather forecasters: if bad weather, rains, colds, precipitation are expected, spiders do not build their webs and do not repair them, they understand this by some changes atmospheric pressure but exactly how is not known. Thick tangles of cobwebs on grass and bushes appear in bad weather. These are insulated cocoons - shelters. Their animals build, anticipating bad weather in 2-3 days.

Our ancestors believed that moles also knew how to predict the weather. If the entrance to the wormhole is located to the north, then autumn and winter will be warm, and if to the south, then cold. This behavior of animals is easily explained. When at the end of summer the moles lack heat, they tend to make their way out of the hole to the warm south side. And vice versa, if it is too hot in the hole, they make an exit to the north.

Watch these phenomena in your region and make your own forecast for the fall!

Folk omens for autumn. Autumn proverbs and sayings.

Autumn omens.

There are a lot of mountain ash in the forest - the autumn will be rainy, a little - dry.

If the cranes fly high, slowly and "talk", it will be a good autumn.

Until the leaf from the cherries has fallen, no matter how much snow falls, the thaw will drive it away.

Clouds are rare - it will be clear and cold.

If there are a lot of nuts, but no mushrooms, the winter will be snowy and harsh.

If birches turn yellow from the top in autumn, the next spring will be early, and if from below, then late.

Signs and sayings of September.

In September, hold on tight to your caftan.

In September it's nicer in the afternoon, but it's worthless in the morning.

In September, even the leaf on the tree does not hold.

Summer ends in September and autumn begins.

In September, one berry, and that one is a bitter mountain ash.

In September, the tit asks for autumn to visit.

Thunder in September - to a long autumn.

Thunder in September portends a warm autumn.

A lot of nettennik in Indian summer - to a clear autumn and cold winter.

September is never fruitless.

September is the evening of the year.

September tears off the caftan from his shoulder, puts on a sheepskin coat.

September sees off the red summer, welcomes the golden autumn.

September is leaf fall.

September reddened the swamps - oats are threshed with frost.

September drove the birds on the road.

September is gloomy.

September 11 - Ivan Lenten, godfather in autumn. From lean Ivan - a man does not go out without a caftan.

September 13 - Kupriyanov day - crane departure. They pull root crops (except for turnips), dig potatoes.

September 14 - Semyon - pilot. The first meeting of autumn. Completion of summer work. If the first day Indian summer clear, then the autumn will be warm.

September 27 - Exaltation, the third meeting of autumn. The first winters. On Vozdvizhenye, the first lady is cabbage (they cut down cabbage).

Signs and sayings of October.

The October day is quickly melting - you can’t tie it to the wattle fence.

In October, it is autumn before noon, and winter in the afternoon.

In October, winter leaves the white nest, dresses up to visit a peasant: "Let me stay in Russia, I will visit villages and villages, we will eat pies."

In October, and a hut with firewood, and a peasant in bast shoes, but still no spores.

In October at one o'clock both rain and snow.

In October, neither on wheels nor on sledges.

October rides on a piebald mare: she doesn’t like wheels or snakes.

In October, say goodbye to the sun, get closer to the stove.

Thunder in October portends a snowless, short and mild winter.

If in October a leaf from a birch and oak does not fall cleanly, expect a harsh winter.

Know autumn in October through mud.

October crowns White snow with great mud.

October is winter.

October will cover the earth where with a leaf, where with a snowball.

October is dirty.

In October, before lunch, autumn, and in the afternoon, winter-winter.

If in October a leaf from a birch and oak falls uncleanly, expect a harsh winter.

The moon turned red - wait for the wind-string.

Autumn frost - to dry, sunny weather.

If there are a lot of nuts and few mushrooms, the winter will be harsh.

October 1 - Arin's day. If the cranes fly to Arina, then on Pokrov (October 14) one must wait for the first frost; and if they are not visible on this day, not a single frost will strike before Artemiev Day (November 2).

October 3 - Astafiev winds. When the north wind blows angry wind- there will be a cold, the southerner blew - to heat, the western one - to sputum, the eastern one - to a bucket.

October 8 - Cabbage is chopped for Sergius. If the first snow falls on Sergius, then winter will set in on St. Michael's Day (November 21).

October 9 - rain with snow - in January expect strong thaws three times, sunny and warm - June will be rainy and cold.

October 14 - Pokrov day. On Pokrov before lunch, autumn, and after lunch - winter-winter. On Pokrov, heat a hut without firewood (insulate housing).

What is the Veil - such is the winter.

October 20 - Sergius. If Sergius is covered with snow, then from the November Matryona, winter will rise to its feet.

October 21 - from Tryphon - Palagea is getting colder. Trifon mends a fur coat, Palageya sews sheep's mittens.

Signs and sayings of November.

In November, winter fights with autumn.

In November, autumn - a fat woman with an evil one - fights in winter.

In November, the frost settles down.

In November, the first solid snow falls overnight.

In November, dawn meets dusk in the middle of the day.

In November, the sun smiles through tears and "white flies".

In November, it can rain in the morning, and in the evening it can snow in snowdrifts.

In November, the warmth of the frost is not a decree.

If the sky cries in November, then winter will come after the rain.

Mosquitoes in November - be a mild winter.

Whoever does not get cold in November will not freeze in December either.

The smithy is small in November, but forges fetters on all rivers.

Do not forge the river in winter without November - a blacksmith.

No wonder in November white flies (snow).

November December brother, September grandson.

November is an off-road vehicle: either snow, or mud, or mud, or snow - neither the wheel nor the skid can move.

In November, the snow will inflate - the bread will arrive.

November - leafy.

November - September grandson, October son, winter dear father. November is a semi-winter season: a peasant says goodbye to a cart, climbs into a sleigh. November nights are dark before the snow.

November 4 - Kazan. Before Kazanskaya - not winter, from Kazanskaya - not autumn. It happens that it rains on Kazanskaya in the morning, and in the evening it snows in snowdrifts.

November 12 - on Zinovia - Sinichkin's holiday. Feathered guests of winter flock: bullfinches, goldfinches, waxwings ... November 14 - Kuzminki, meeting winter. Do not shackle the river in winter without Kuzma-Demyan.

November 21 - Michaelmas Day. If Mikhailo Demyanov destroys the path, do not wait for the path to winter Nikola(December 19) If there is frost on Mikhailov's day, expect big snows, and if the day begins with fog, it will be warmer.

November 25 - Studit will become cold and angry. If on the 25th it rains or snows - according to ancient signs, there will be thaws until the Introduction (December 4).

People's forecast for the whole autumn.

Mushrooms have appeared - summer is over.

If the meadows are entangled in the net, the geese walk in herds, the starlings do not fly away for a long time, and the hares do not turn white for a long time, then the autumn will be long and windy.

Autumn will be warm if pansies, buttercups, daisies, yarrow, clover bloom until late summer.

Thunder in September portends a warm autumn.

Swans fly south late - autumn will be long and warm.

If the birds linger in their native lands longer than usual, then the cold will not come soon.

If the duck is still sitting on the water and does not fly away even in cold rain, then good weather will still last a long time.

Late flowering of mountain ash - by a long autumn.

When there are few mountain ash in the forest, then the autumn will be dry, and when there is a lot, it will be rainy.

According to the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, the beginning of autumn promises to be quite warm and almost rainy. Thus, the average monthly temperature in 2015 will exceed the norm in most of the Urals and Primorye, as well as in the North-West region, including the Krasnoyarsk Territory. It will be cooler in Chukotka and Siberia, as well as in other northern territories. Ukraine also expects fairly calm weather until the middle of the season, however, it will be cooler in Crimea than in previous years.

As for precipitation, it will be quite dry in the western part of the North-West region and in the east of the Volga region, which may affect the yield. The same can be said about the southern part of the Urals.

But not everyone is lucky enough to bask in the sun a little longer - in the western part of the South federal district heavy rainfall is expected throughout September 2015. Therefore, waterproof clothing and rubber shoes will be in fashion there.

Seasons are shifting: what will fall 2015 be like?

Forecasters have long noticed that there is a noticeable shift in the seasons - spring comes later than usual, "moves" the summer, which lasts until the end of September, etc. So, autumn in Moscow and the whole country will come a little later than the due date. However, due to global climate change in the world to replace warm September a sharply cool October will come, which will immediately flow into cold winter, but it’s impossible to say exactly what autumn 2015 will be like.

Especially well these weather changes will be seen in the northern regions of Ukraine, the capital of Russia and on the southern coast of Crimea. There is expected a large number of precipitation, a sharp cooling, an increase in snow cover above the average annual rate.

It should be taken into account that the accuracy of forecasts is about 70%, and since in recent times weather variability amazes even the most experienced meteorologists, you can count on abnormal "surprises" in the form of autumn frosts or heavy rains. But the opportunity to know exactly what autumn will be like this year, and whether it will become colder, will be presented to all of us very soon.

What will be the winter of 2015-2016? This question is very relevant now. In anticipation of the cold season, we hope for fine weather for winter walks: sunny day with light snowfall, snow caps on the trees, light frost and intricate icicles on the roofs of houses. However, this is not always the case, and it is not possible to make a prediction yourself.

For an answer to the question: when will the winter of 2015-2016 come and what will it be like, we decided to turn to specialists. According to weather forecasts, a cold snap is expected in mid-October, and residents will be the first to feel it. Far East, Magadan and Irkusk regions, as well as Yakutia. In November, the cold breath of winter will already reach most of the European territory of the Russian Federation, and in some places there will already be snow.

Winter 2015-2016: forecast for December

The first winter month will start with relatively warm weather for the winter. The average daily temperature will hardly exceed -5/-10 degrees. Some precipitation is expected. Slightly spoil the picture short wet snow with rain. But already in the second half of the month we should expect a sharp cooling down to -20. A large amount of precipitation is unlikely, but closer to the new year you can count on light snowfalls. Thanks to stable frosty weather, snow in holidays will not melt, keeping a wonderful New Year's mood.

Winter 2016: forecast for January

January promises to be the most severe of all the winter months. Although the first half will follow the December weather trend, it will begin with light snowfall and an average temperature of at least -15 degrees. As the second half of the month approaches, the temperature regime and the amount of precipitation will change dramatically. It is worth expecting heavy snowfalls, followed by snowless periods with low temperatures down to -35 degrees. But, such inclement weather will not last long, and by the end of the month we can expect warming to -15/-20 degrees, which will be accompanied by light precipitation. The weather will be sunny.

Winter 2016: forecast for February

The last winter month will also “please” with its inconstancy. At first, you should expect pleasant winter weather. A little frosty, but sunny days. Precipitation will be light, but there will be occasional sleet. The average daily temperature will not drop below -10 degrees. True, such ideal winter weather will last no longer than a week, and by the middle of the month it will be possible to forget about warming. It will be replaced by a sharp cold snap. The thermometers will drop to -25/-30 degrees. Although a large amount of precipitation is not expected, the roads will still be covered with light snowfalls for a couple of days.

Winter 2015 - 2016 will bring many surprises in terms of weather changes. Temperature fluctuations will be seriously felt, but throughout winter season the amount of snow will not interfere with the movement of vehicles on highways. Winter will be quite severe, but will not forget to occasionally delight us with warm and sunny days.

Weather is a very unpredictable phenomenon. And according to weather forecasters, the winter will be quite cold. Naturally, it is too early to give unambiguous forecasts, but we will try to find out the approximate temperatures that await us.

According to the research of the Japanese scientist Mototaka Nakamura, the northern hemisphere of our planet is at the final stage. global warming which started back in 1980. In 2015 a strong drop in temperature and heavy precipitation in the form of snow is expected. A paradox arises - summer is getting hotter and longer, and winter is getting colder. Russian scientists also confirm the conclusions of the Japanese. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere will increase markedly. True, these indicators are affected by the amount of greenhouse gases that will accumulate in the atmosphere. And if the developed countries do not take care of this problem, nature will throw even bigger surprises at us.

What winter awaits us in 2015

According to the Hydrometeorological Center, winter will be changeable. You should not expect any sharp drops, but a certain instability is very possible. Remembering past years, it’s already worth getting used to such weather conditions. Forecasters promise that the most severe frosts will fall in the second half of winter - the end of January, the beginning of February. On the New Year we expect comfortable weather (about -5 degrees) and a large amount of precipitation. Snowfalls will begin just in this period. Some even fear that the rainfall will be too heavy and may exceed its norm twice.

The inhabitants of distant Yakutia will be the first to face the “charms” of winter. Frosts will come to them in October. Also, residents of the Far East and the Magadan region should not relax. Many cyclones, heavy rainfall and frequent weather changes are expected. Forecasters called the warmest area Central regions. Comfortable weather is expected in this area, perhaps a little warmer than usual. In general, we people, accustomed to the vagaries of the weather, now need to decide whether to stock up on felt boots, galoshes or snowshoes.

Folk omens about the weather in winter

1. Scientists have found that the color of the caterpillars of butterflies bears can determine how severe the next winter will be. If black prevails over orange, then 80% of the fact that severe cold awaits us.
2. You can learn about the upcoming winter by the wool of domestic animals. If before the start of the cold season their fur becomes very dense, then their body is preparing for the cold.
3. Before serious temperature drops, animals begin to harvest a large amount of supplies.
4. Acorn shells can predict the weather. The thicker their shell, the colder it will be. By the same principle, the husk of onions and the outer leaves of corn change.
5. If birds fly away to warm lands ahead of time, this is a good reason to think that winter is very close and will come earlier than usual.

The weather in early September surprised the residents of Tatarstan. After hot sunny days came a sharp cold snap. But do not despair, the heat is just around the corner.

On Saturday, September 2, it was real summer in Tatarstan, the air warmed up to 26 degrees during the day. A sharp cold snap by the evening of August 3 was very noticeable. The republic was invaded by cold arctic air in the rear of the cyclone. The temperature dropped to 9 degrees at night and 12-14 degrees during the day. Experts note that autumn begins when the average daily temperature drops below 15 degrees. It's cloudy and cold outside right now. Such weather at the very beginning of autumn is considered abnormal.

According to the Russian Hydrometeorological Service, average temperature in September in Tatarstan it is expected to be 1 degree above the climatic norm. The norm in the republic is 11 degrees with a plus sign. Monthly precipitation is predicted to be less than the long-term average at a rate of 52 mm. At the same time, in the first ten days of September, the temperature is expected to be 1.5 degrees above the climatic norm,” Irina Trushchina, head of the meteorological forecast department of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Republic of Tatarstan, told Tatar-inform news agency.

Waves of heat and cold

The nature of the weather is now unstable, there is an alternation of cyclones and anticyclones. In the next three days, the air will gradually warm up, significant precipitation is not expected. The republic will be under the influence of the crest of the northern anticyclone. But by the end of the week the weather will deteriorate again, the rains will come. Long period with partly cloudy warm weather not expected this week.

“The cool weather will last for two or three days, and then the air will gradually warm up. Warming will begin on September 7, the thermometer during the day can rise to 19-20 degrees. In September there will be both heat waves and cold waves. Now we are experiencing a cold wave,” said Yuri Perevedentsev, Head of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology of the Institute of Ecology and Nature Management of KFU.

Whims of Indian summer

Indian summer is the period when dry weather sets in. sunny weather after rain and storm. It is worth noting that it does not happen every year. So, in 2000 and 2016, it was not on the territory of the republic at all. Last year, after a hot August, September turned out to be cold and rainy. Then there was only one "Woman" day - September 25, when the air temperature warmed up to 21.5 degrees, and there was no rain. In 2007, September was cold, the warm period began on September 28 and lasted only two days. Sometimes Indian summer lasts 2.5 weeks.

Indian summer will be in the second half of September. Let's hope it lasts a week. If there is an anticyclone and southerly winds, the temperature may exceed 20 degrees. Over the past 17 years, there has been no "Indian summer" for two years. Therefore, there is a high probability that this year it will be,” Yuri Perevedentsev believes.

On average, "Indian summer" lasts 1-1.5 weeks. In 2008 it was six days, and the average daily temperature was 19 degrees. In 2015, the "Indian summer" lasted from September 13 to September 29 - 17 days, and the average daily temperature was 18.5 degrees. It's pretty heat for September, forecasters say.

When is the heating season

The heating season begins when the average daily air temperature drops below 8 degrees Celsius. Usually, heat in houses is turned on in the second half of September. First, it is given to kindergartens, hospitals and schools. There is no weather forecast for the upcoming heating period - October and November. It will appear at the end of September.

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